ANAHEIM, Calif. -- On several occasions before this season began, Marcus Pettersson shared that he'd like to get back to bringing a little bit more to the table offensively.
Even though he found himself out of the lineup as a healthy scratch on a couple of occasions toward the end of last season, Pettersson had the best season of his career from a defensive standpoint. Embracing a shutdown role against mid-to-low-level competition did come at the expense of his offensive impact, though, as he graded out close to replacement-level offensively after several seasons comfortably above average.
Now, Pettersson has taken on a considerably larger role against better competition and he's absolutely crushing it. This might sound ridiculous regarding a player who has no goals and 13 assists in 48 games, but Pettersson's ability to positively impact quality offensive generation this season ranks among elite company. Hear me out.
Before diving in, it's important to remember that talent doesn't necessarily equal impact or value. Just look at the current version of Patrick Kane. He still possesses some of the silkiest hands around the league, in addition to a wicked shot, but that talent isn't translating to strong scoring or chance-generation rates for his team when he's on the ice.
I'm not suggesting Pettersson's talent is in the same stratosphere as say, Cale Makar, but he's doing a better job of driving offense than the vast majority of NHL defenders. The Penguins are generating 3.37 expected goals for per hour with Pettersson on the ice at 5-on-5 this season, per Evolving-Hockey. Of 185 defensemen to play at least 400 minutes during 5-on-5 action, Pettersson's mark tops them all.
On-ice expected goals numbers are heavily influenced by the environment a player is deployed in, but there are statistical models (regularized adjusted plus/minus, or RAPM) that fizzle out the noise to decipher a player's true impact in various components of the game. This is also referred to as a player's isolated impact. Several public models agree that Pettersson isn't riding the coattails of his teammates to such strong chance-generation, but that he's conducting quite a bit of it himself from the back end.
According to Evolving-Hockey's RAPM model, Pettersson's isolated impact toward even-strength offense ranks third among league defensemen, sandwiched right between Adam Fox and Erik Karlsson. And although he doesn't grade out quite as well in TopDownHockey's RAPM model, Pettersson still ranks in the 98th percentile.
"I feel like Marcus helps us generate offense even though his numbers don’t reflect that," Mike Sullivan said following the Penguins' optional morning skate here at the Honda Center Friday. "He puts himself in good positions, he gets a lot of good looks, he creates a lot of next-play opportunities for our guys that sometimes translate into goals. I do think his offensive game has developed."
There's a discussion to be had about how long Pettersson can keep this up, but whether or not it holds, that doesn't change what he's been able to accomplish offensively to this point of the season.
"He has pretty good offensive instincts, he’s pretty active on the offensive blue line," Sullivan continued. "He makes pretty good decisions when he jumps, when he activates off the line and when he activates off the rush. Even though his numbers don’t reflect it, I do think he’s helping us generate offense."
MORE FROM THE SKATE
• The Penguins held a pretty lightly attended morning skate. Here are the players who took the option to participate: Teddy Blueger, Kasperi Kapanen, Danton Heinen, Drew O'Connor, P.O Joseph, Chad Ruhwedel, Mark Friedman, Jan Rutta, Tristan Jarry, Dustin Tokarski.
• Casey DeSmith gets the nod in goal for the Penguins Friday night against the Ducks. Sullivan did not rule out starting him again on Saturday night against the Kings in Los Angeles. Coming off a 41-save victory over the Avalanche on Tuesday, he is 8-10-4 this season with a .905 save percentage, 3.23 goals against average and 5.56 goals saved above expected based on the quality of chances he's faced.
• John Gibson was the first goalie off the ice for the Ducks' morning skate and is expected to start. On the surface, Gibson's having a brutal season. He's 10-20-5 with a .900 save percentage, 3.89 goals against average, but the Ducks' defense in front of him has been abominable. Take a look, courtesy of HockeyViz:
HockeyViz.com
Factoring in the workload he's faced, Gibson has actually saved 1.84 goals above expected.
• Based on Thursday's practice, here's how the Penguins are expected to line up against the Ducks:
Jake Guentzel - Sidney Crosby - Rickard Rakell
Jason Zucker - Evgeni Malkin - Bryan Rust
Brock McGinn - Jeff Carter - Kasperi Kapanen
Ryan Poehling - Teddy Blueger - Josh Archibald
Brian Dumoulin - Kris Letang
Marcus Pettersson - Jeff Petry
P.O Joseph - Chad Ruhwedel
• This will be Rakell's first game back in Anaheim since the Penguins acquired him at last season's trade deadline. After practice Thursday, Rakell said he's exactly where he wants to be now. In 69 regular-season games with the Penguins, Rakell has scored 22 goals along with 24 assists.
• Puck drops against the Ducks tonight at 10:08 p.m. Eastern here at the Honda Center. Dejan Kovacevic and I will have your coverage.
