CRANBERRY, Pa. -- Saturday marked the first day of unrestricted free agency in the NHL. Kyle Dubas and the Penguins were very busy with eight signings, which addressed the goaltending position, a hole on the left side of the blue line, the bottom six and organizational depth.
In order of each contract's annual cap hit, here are the eight signings:
• Tristan Jarry (goalie) -- Five years, $5.375 million annual cap hit
• Ryan Graves (defenseman) -- Six years, $4.5 million annual cap hit
• Lars Eller (forward) -- Two years, $2.45 million annual cap hit
• Noel Acciari (forward) -- Three years, $2 million annual cap hit
• Alex Nedeljkovic (goalie) -- One year, $1.5 million cap hit
• Matt Nieto (forward) -- Two years, $900,000 annual cap hit
• Joona Koppanen (forward) -- Two years, $775,000 annual cap hit
• Ryan Shea (defenseman) -- One year, $775,000 cap hit
Nothing was more important for Dubas this offseason, as he'd made clear, than making the call in goal. Instead of utilizing a rather bare-bones pool of futures assets to bring in a top goaltender via trade or making what likely would have been a lateral move, at best, for another No. 1 goalie via free agency, he decided that bringing Jarry back made the most sense.
"For me, it’s looking at the whole sample," Dubas responded when asked Saturday at the UPMC Lemieux Sports Complex what made him comfortable enough to commit to Jarry for the long haul. "When you go back a number of years, I think Tristan’s played the sixth most games in the league and won the fifth most in the last three seasons. The injury stuff, I don’t want to make it more pronounced than it was because, even with the injuries, he still played 49 games this year, which is a credit to Tristan. ... But he still played through it and was able to still play well."
After the best season of his career in 2021-22 with a .918 save percentage and 6.6 goals saved above expected based on the quality of chances he faced, Jarry was very up-and-down in 2022-23 as he dealt with injuries, recording a .909 save percentage and 1.1 goals saved above expected.
Dubas is betting on a return to form and a clean bill of health.
"I think he would be the first to tell you he wants to continue to be better," Dubas said, "and I think his sample shows that he’s capable of being better."
He went on to add that, considering Jarry being 28 years old and the rest of the marketplace, "it was the best bet to make for our club at this time."
The Penguins continue to roster the same goaltending tandem that has ultimately disappointed over the last few seasons, but the signing of Nedeljkovic has, theoretically, created a healthy competition between him, Jarry and Casey DeSmith.
It's possible DeSmith will be traded before the start of next season, but maybe he or Nedeljkovic will be waived for purpose of re-assignment to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton after training camp to maintain depth at the position. It must be noted, however, that DeSmith's performance has blown away that of Nedeljkovic over the last two seasons. In 64 games with the Red Wings since the start of 2021-22, Nedeljkovic posted a .900 save percentage and allowed 18.4 more goals than expected, whereas DeSmith posted a .908 save percentage and saved 8.1 goals above expected in 64 games during the same timeframe.
That said, Nedeljkovic was phenomenal in 23 games with the Hurricanes in 2020-21, boasting a .931 save percentage and 13.3 goals saved above expected. If he can recapture a fraction of that level, DeSmith might be in trouble. After all, goaltending is as volatile as it gets. Crazier things have happened.
For now, the presumptive pecking order is:
1. Jarry
2. DeSmith
3. Nedeljkovic
Dubas made it clear that he'll continue looking to improve the team throughout the offseason, but suggested the current personnel will be pretty close to what's taken into the season.
So, with goaltending covered, how might the skaters line up?
Here's my best guess (not what I'd do) from what's already in the fold:
Jake Guentzel - Sidney Crosby - Bryan Rust
Reilly Smith - Evgeni Malkin - Rickard Rakell
Mikael Granlund - Lars Eller - Noel Acciari
Drew O'Connor - Jeff Carter - Matt Nieto
Extra forwards: Alex Nylander, Valtteri Puustinen
Ryan Graves - Kris Letang
Marcus Pettersson - Jeff Petry
P.O Joseph - Jan Rutta
Extra defensemen: Chad Ruhwedel, Mark Friedman, Ty Smith
The top six up front figures to remain the same, with the lone exception being Reilly Smith taking Jason Zucker's spot on the left wing of the second line. Although Smith is a very different player from Zucker, stylistically speaking, he'll likely provide comparable overall value, if not a tad more.
That's totally fine, because the top six took care of business last season. There's nothing to suggest they won't do it again in 2023-24.
Last season's bottom six was a different story. They didn't score nearly enough and they certainly didn't control play to a degree that lessened the burden on the team's stars.
Will this bottom six fare any better?
I'm not convinced the scoring will improve much, but it's pretty clear that even-strength defense and penalty-killing ability were the priorities with each bottom-six addition.
Eller, 34, is an incredibly smart player who tends to have rather solid defensive impacts at evens. Over the past three seasons, he ranks in the 60th percentile among NHL forwards in that regard, per JFresh Hockey, but ranked in the 83rd percentile last season, which he split between the Capitals and Avalanche. If not for an all-around poor season in 2021-22, his three-year mark would be considerably higher.
"He’s somebody that we had keyed in on early in free agency," Dubas said.
At the NHL Draft in Nashville, Tenn. earlier this week, Mike Sullivan said the penalty-kill was an area to improve this offseason, and Eller will most certainly help. His short-handed impact ranks in the 92nd percentile since the start of 2020-21.
Offense never has been Eller's calling card, though, as he topped out with a career-high 39 points in 2019-20. He scored just 10 goals and had 13 assists in 84 regular-season games last year, then went without a point in seven postseason games. Don't expect him to contribute a whole heck of a lot when it comes to putting the puck in the net.
Acciari, 31, was acquired by Dubas when he was general manager of the Maple Leafs at last season's trade deadline. He's a very physical player who likes to hit and is willing to battle for possession in the corners and along the wall.
"He’s gonna be extremely physical every night, able to kill penalties, able to chip in and score, as well," Dubas said. "But in terms of the toughness that he brings, I think it’s undisputed in the way that he plays. He’ll put any part of his body on the line to block shots. That will be very welcome here."
Like Eller, Acciari is not a big point producer (23 points in 77 games last season), but where they start to differ is that Acciari's gritty work positively influences his team's ability to create quality offensive chances, and he can put the puck in the net a bit. His even-strength offensive impact grades out in the 65th percentile over the last three seasons and never dipped below the 60th percentile during that time. He scored 20 goals in 2019-20 and had 14 last season. That's somewhat rare for a player with his skill set.
Acciari is coming off a season in which he had some of the league's best defensive impacts at even-strength (96th percentile), but that was a major improvement over the previous two seasons. He probably won't be quite at that level with the Penguins, but he has the ability to come close. He, too, will be a fixture on the penalty-kill.
Nieto, 30, has spent his entire 651-game career with the Sharks and Avalanche. He played his first three-plus seasons with the Sharks before being traded to the Avalanche in 2016-17. He remained with Colorado through the end of the 2019-20 season and then returned to San Jose until last season's trade deadline, when he was shipped back to the Avalanche via trade.
Through 45 games with the Sharks last season, Nieto recorded eight goals and seven assists, but his production tailed off a bit in 36 games with the Avalanche, putting up four goals and five assists. That has more to do with his ice-time dropping than anything else, as he averaged 15.6 minutes per game with the Sharks, but just 10.9 minutes per game with the Avalanche.
"He brings great speed," Dubas said. "Defensively responsible, able to kill penalties, able to chip in [offensively], as well."
Defensively responsible might be underselling it. Nieto's even-strength defensive impact ranks in the 91st percentile the last three seasons. His offensive impact also has been above average in two of the last three seasons. He's a solid skater and is routinely described as a hard worker.
Graves, 28, will fill the hole left behind by Brian Dumoulin.
"Ryan, obviously, he brings a lot of size to the group," Dubas said, "but more importantly, he’s been very effective playing against very tough competition in New Jersey and going back to Colorado. We feel that’ll help."
At 6-foot-5, 220 pounds, Graves routinely takes the tough matchups against the opposition's best players. Few defensemen have played against a higher quality of competition than him in recent seasons. That said, his defensive impact ranked in just the 30th percentile last season and the 50th percentile the season prior.
He isn't poor defensively like last season's impact might suggest, but he isn't a true shutdown defender based on the results just yet. It's possible that he could blossom into one with the Penguins, just don't bank on it.
Graves isn't overly skilled with the puck, but he scores at a relatively strong rate, is involved off the rush, and has a slightly above-average offensive impact over the last three seasons.
"Very impressed with him and think he complements what we have on our right side very well with Kris Letang and Jeff Petry," Dubas said.
Koppanen, 25, and Shea, 26, will end up as reinforcements for Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.
The bottom six should do a better job of controlling play than they did last season and Graves is unquestionably a huge upgrade over Dumoulin, but there's a lot riding on Jarry becoming what everyone knows he's capable of.
